The incident sparked a diplomatic row between China, which is thought to have pressured the Kenyan government to deport the Taiwanese nationals to the mainland, and Taiwan, which accused China of "extrajudicial abduction" and demanded their immediate release.
The incident represents a display of China's sway in the international community with a pointed political message.
Public distrust of China, already high in Taiwan, will rise further.
China's handling of the incident will fuel a trend toward greater reluctance among Taiwanese to work in mainland China.
The Democratic Progressive Party will use the incident to further its Sino-sceptic agenda in parliament, which it now controls.
Cross-Strait cooperation on cross-border crime is likely to see modest progress following the incident.
