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Subject

Cambodia opposition politics update.

Significance

Sam Rainsy, leader of the main opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), has taken to social media to call on overseas Cambodians to come home to register to vote in time for the 2017 local commune elections (tentatively planned for February) and the 2018 general election. In an April 8 Facebook posting, he also drew a wishful comparison between Cambodia's 2018 election and the democratic transfer of power in Myanmar this year.

Impacts

The CPP will increasingly push populist economic measures as elections near.

The military and police would not support a CNRP election victory.

The CNRP will try to increase institutional capacity, for instance promoting new junior leaders.

China would welcome the current government's continuance; others in the international community would probably acquiesce.

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