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Subject
Social cohesion in Oman.
Significance
Oman is rightly seen as an island of stability and tolerance in a turbulent region. However, there are growing concerns about the health of Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Bu Sa'id and what this might mean for the sultanate's stability, particularly given the fiscal crisis brought on by low oil prices.
Impacts
Any substantive instability would damage Oman's tourism sector, a core focus of its diversification strategy.
Even under a new sultan, Oman is expected to remain neutral in Saudi-Iranian disputes.
Unrest in Oman is unlikely to develop a sectarian tone.
Political reforms would likely involve the next sultan devolving significant power to the cabinet and parliament.
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2016
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