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Significance
Poland faces an uncertain second quarter, the economy having slowed to its lowest point since late 2012. Questions are being raised over the outlook for interest rates under new National Bank (NBP) Governor Adam Glapinski, who formally replaces Marek Belka on June 11.
Impacts
Growth may slow in January-June, especially if deflationary conditions sap consumer confidence, private consumption and industrial output.
An RPP change in outlook on inflation-targeting could see a third quarter rate cut, if GDP fails to rebound (the NBP expects steady growth).
Poland is at risk of a second credit rating downgrade, particularly if expenditure growth continues to outpace revenue during 2016.
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2016
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