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Significance
Tentative shifts in Eritrea's regional and global relations -- related to the conflict in Yemen and to Eritrean migration to Europe -- have raised the prospect that the country could emerge from diplomatic isolation, which may in turn increase Ethiopia's concerns about its northern frontier.
Impacts
US-Saudi differences over regional security create a diplomatic opening for Asmara, which is highly critical of US policy.
The clashes intensify the EU's difficulty in balancing its 'rights-based' foreign policy with strategic interests in Eritrea.
Tensions with Eritrea will probably remain distinct from anti-government mobilisation in Ethiopia, such as the recent protests in Oromiya.
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2016
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