Outlook for the post-transition political system.
The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections.
Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business.
China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch.
Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.
