The encirclement of eastern Aleppo is the latest in a series of heavy blows to the rebel movement since Russian military intervention began in September 2015. What is left of the armed opposition to the regime of President Bashar al-Assad in northern Syria is dominated by jihadists, including Syrian al-Qaida affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra (JaN), and by hard-line Islamist factions such as Ahrar al-Sham. The changing character of the northern insurgency complicates the political logic of Western and Gulf support for the armed opposition.
Humanitarian conditions in rebel-held areas will deteriorate and refugee flows will increase.
US, Turkish and Gulf support to the rebels will continue, partly to maintain them as leverage in talks on a political transition.
A new US administration may attempt to increase support for nationalist rebels to counterbalance JaN, but is unlikely to succeed.
US, Russian targeting of JaN will bolster the global jihadist, anti-Western orientation of the group.
Containing the northern insurgency would enable the regime to redeploy forces to retake territory in the south.
