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Subject
Migration patterns and dynamics.
Significance
Tens of thousands of migrants and refugees from Africa and elsewhere attempt to cross the Mediterranean from Libya to Europe each year, travelling on overcrowded and flimsy boats controlled by people smugglers. The flow of people poses humanitarian and political challenges for the EU and Libya's closest European neighbour, Italy.
Impacts
Libya will remain a major destination for migrant workers, despite current economic performance.
A new political or security deterioration in Libya could trigger a small increase in migrant flows to Italy.
Libyan border management will remain weak, despite initiatives such as the EU Border Assistance Mission.
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2016
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