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Significance

Relations between Germany and Turkey have taken a turn for the worse since the attempted coup on July 15-16. Faced with a widening crackdown on the Turkish opposition, a spillover of tensions into Germany and signs of a party rebellion against her migrant policy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel cannot afford to push for new concessions to preserve the controversial migrant deal.

Impacts

Only partial suspension of the deal, with Turkey continuing to prevent mass migration, would contain tensions and limit pressure on the EU.

Upcoming elections in two German states could see the populist AfD gain votes, strengthening Merkel's critics.

A tougher stance on Tu rkey may increase abstention among German-Turkish voters, hurting primarily the Social Democrats and the Greens.

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