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Significance
Fears of imminent conflict sparked by Moscow's allegation that Ukraine sent covert forces into Crimea have receded, but the crisis demonstrates the strength of Russian-Ukrainian mistrust and the risk of rapid escalation. The threat of a Russian invasion was enough to rattle Western governments even if Moscow never intended to follow it through.
Impacts
Lack of progress on a Ukrainian settlement could prompt Moscow to engineer an escalation in fighting in the Donbas region.
The aim of increasing the level of warfare would be to force a revision of the Minsk 2.0 peace agreement on terms favourable to Russia.
Moscow will mix military threats with persuasion to weaken EU resolve on sanctions.
Keywords:
Russia,
Ukraine,
RUCIS,
EU,
France,
G20,
Germany,
United States,
UKRAINE/RUSSIA,
international relations,
politics,
civil war,
foreign policy,
invasion,
military,
summit,
talks,
war,
rebellion,
security
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2016
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