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Subject
Ugandan presidential transition scenarios.
Significance
Six months into his latest presidential term, Yoweri Museveni may already be preparing for the next presidential elections, scheduled for 2021. To compete, Museveni must amend a constitutional provision barring presidential candidates over 75 years of age (he would be 77). Legal obstacles may be the least of his concerns for holding on to power: challenges could come from the opposition and within his own party.
Impacts
Besigye's forthcoming trial for treason could serve as a significant flashpoint.
Museveni may have less support from the police to quell future protests.
The crisis in South Sudan may increase regional tensions, especially if Kampala supports Juba.
Keywords:
Uganda,
AF,
South Sudan,
politics,
constitution,
election,
legislation,
opposition,
coup,
police,
security
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2016
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