Oman's economic outlook.
Oman faces a massive fiscal deficit in 2016, which government policies are unable to address. The budgetary shortfall in the first seven months of 2016 reached 4 billion Omani riyals (10 billion dollars), outstripping the projected full-year deficit of 3.3 billion riyals. Low oil prices have pushed down revenue, while the government struggles to control spending.
A requirement to employ more Omanis will reduce the competitiveness of local firms.
Popular resentment against expatriate workers (who constitute 40% of the population) is likely to rise.
The government may curb some elite corruption and excess consumption, but the patronage system will remain entrenched.
While 75-year-old Sultan Qaboos is popular, his successor will face difficult economic decisions, increasing the chances of serious unrest.
