Modest recovery in Moldova.
Moldova is experiencing a moderate economic recovery from last year's recession, helped by the government's commitment to European integration which is already manifested in a redirection of exports, particularly food, from Russia to EU markets. Financial assistance from the IMF and the EU support this policy direction. However, a pro-Moscow, anti-EU politician, Igor Dodon, is leading in the polls ahead of the October 30 presidential election.
Moscow will seek to use allies like Dodon to draw Moldova closer in political if not economic terms.
Ukraine is in a position to emulate Moldova by using agricultural exports to European markets to increase foreign currency earnings.
Belarus, too, may see the benefits of engaging with the EU in political and economic terms.
