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Significance

While Magufuli's trip will focus on regional relations, there is a growing impression at home -- championed by Tanzanian opposition parties -- that his government is becoming increasingly autocratic, determined to stifle all forms of democratic dissent. Magufuli's governing style may mask structural weaknesses of his position, calling into doubt his ability to pursue a reforming agenda and maintain his zealous campaign against corruption.

Impacts

Magufuli's narrow base within the CCM may hinder his anti-corruption campaign, especially against senior officials.

Increasing political tensions in Tanzania and a crackdown on democratic dissent may force donors to review support.

Instability and declining democracy will worry investors and governments who view Tanzania as a source of regional stability.

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