Uncertainties surround Trump's willingness to uphold past US foreign policy commitments; nuclear weapons policy is no exception. The next administration will take power with political squabbles deadlocking arms control institutions, fraying international consensus on shared priorities for reducing nuclear dangers, and Washington standing opposite nuclear-armed states in several simmering disputes.
North Korean technological advances will render the US goal of Pyongyang's eventual denuclearisation untenable.
Trump will scrutinise Iran for nuclear deal backsliding; Tehran may nevertheless see benefits in strict adherence.
Washington questioning its post-1979 'One China' policy towards Taiwan could lead Beijing to adopt a more provocative nuclear posture.
US allies in Asia and NATO will view nuclear policy shifts as clues to Washington's relative commitment to their security.
Trump's overtures may lead to greater cooperation with Russia on sanctions and counterterrorism, but probably not arms reductions.
