The potential for crisis in Greek-Turkish relations.
Following a long period of rapprochement and normalised relations between Greece and Turkey, the two states' relationship is being tested by a deteriorating geopolitical environment and an increasingly restless post-coup Turkey. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's rhetorical revisionism regarding post-First World War borders is making Greece very uneasy for its Aegean islands.
Bilateral relations will mainly be affected by the wider geopolitical environment and the regional balance of power.
While Erdogan is intensifying nationalist rhetoric directed at Greece, he must consider other more immediate and dangerous security threats.
The economic and energy costs of competition in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean could be significant for both countries.
