Disputes about fuel prices, as well as Belarusian concerns about Moscow's treatment of Ukraine, have marred the long-term Belarusian-Russian alignment. As head of the weaker state, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka has limited room for manoeuvre but has complained about Russia's behaviour and reversed his previous anti-Western stance, offering engagement and investment opportunities to EU states.
Greater US and European willingness to engage with Moscow may undermine Belarusian attempts to emerge as a separate interlocutor.
Stable or rising global energy prices will change the calculations in bilateral oil and gas disputes.
The Eurasian Economic Union will struggle to develop integration because of suspicions about Moscow's intentions towards fellow members.
