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Subject

Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny's election bid.

Significance

Opposition figure and anti-corruption campaigner Alexey Navalny announced in mid-December that he would stand in the 2018 presidential election. He is using social media to promote a programme of left-of-centre policies that seek to address popular grievances.

Impacts

If Navalny makes it to election day, the inclusion of at least one other opposition figure, Grigory Yavlinsky, would draw off votes.

Modest economic recovery would favour Putin, assuming that average incomes start rising perceptibly.

Pension and other changes lobbied for by reformers will be postponed until after the election to avoid public resentment.

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