Open figure viewer
Subject
Significance
Comments by US President Donald Trump and members of his administration indicate that US policy in the South China Sea will be unpredictable and potentially destabilising.
Impacts
Trump's personal approach will likely contain a mix of aggressive posturing and unexpected concessions.
If cabinet officials exert a moderating influence, the administration will develop a bifurcated approach to China.
Beijing will try hard to keep relations on an even keel.
Provocative US actions would quickly alter Asian states’ perceptions that Chinese assertiveness is the primary driver of regional tensions.
The South China Sea is a non-negotiable 'core interest' for Beijing, even if the Trump administration tries to link it to trade issues.
Keywords:
United States,
Asia,
AP,
China,
Philippines,
Vietnam,
US/ASIA,
international relations,
defence,
foreign policy,
military,
security
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2017
You do not currently have access to this content.
