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Subject

Outlook for South-east Asia-Japan relations.

Significance

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe meets US President Donald Trump on February 10. This follows his January 12-17 tour of the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and Australia and new US defence secretary James Mattis's visit to Tokyo and South Korea last week. China’s assertiveness and influence in the Asia-Pacific region, and the policy uncertainties surrounding the Trump administration threaten Japan’s traditional foreign and security policy settings and East and South-east Asian leadership role.

Impacts

South-east Asian states will try to play China and Japan off against each other for improved infrastructure financing.

Australia and Japan are now the leading countries committed to the TPP’s continued relevance.

Vietnam is likely to seek deeper economic and security ties with Japan.

Japan may face US pressure to conduct South China Sea freedom-of-navigation patrols.

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