Manama is gradually rolling back some of the reforms to limit the power of the security forces that were put in place after the post-2011 Arab uprisings. The government has been emboldened by Saudi backing and by its security alliance with key Western powers. The new US administration’s more confrontational policy towards Iran’s regional role, which has been echoed by the UK government, could strengthen that alliance.
The strategic importance to Washington of its military presence in Bahrain will rise as tensions with Iran increase.
Spillover from US and Saudi confrontations with Iran in Yemen or Gulf shipping lanes could affect Bahrain’s internal stability.
Iranian-linked Shia militant groups such as Saraya al-Ashtar or Saraya al-Mukhtar may escalate hostilities.
The US and UK governments will seek to increase base security, but could also quietly pressure Manama to make concessions to the Shia.
