Open figure viewer
Significance
The main assault from the south is led by the national army, with US air support. However, Iran-backed Popular Mobilisation Units (PMUs) are also participating to the east and west, while Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Peshmerga hold areas in the north.
Impacts
IS fighters will hold out as long as possible in Tal Afar, likely using civilians as human shields.
The Kurdish secession referendum planned for September 25 could be an immediate trigger of violence.
The KRG is likely to insist on holding the vote in disputed areas under its military control, to establish a claim for annexation.
International oil and gas firms that have signed contracts with the KRG will hang back from new investment in disputed areas.
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2017
You do not currently have access to this content.
