Another 20,000 were gathering near the Bangladesh-Myanmar border yesterday following Rohingya militia attacks on police and military installations. The situation in Rakhine State was already tense: the same group attacked nine police posts in October 2016, prompting a crackdown by Myanmar’s military. A further security operation is now under way, posing more social and political dangers. An estimated 400 have died so far in renewed fighting.
International aid agencies in Rakhine may have to withdraw their personnel.
Myanmar’s neighbours will experience further refugee inflows.
Instability may threaten Myanmar’s place in China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Other Myanmar ethnic minorities will see even less reason to trust the military, further impeding the Panglong peace process.
The Rakhine controversy will likely cause further rifts within ASEAN.
