The last major rebel-held area in Syria, Idlib province is under the military control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a salafi-jihadist rebel alliance. Jaysh al-Ahrar, the largest non-al-Qaida faction in HTS, announced on September 13 it was leaving the organisation. This followed the resignation of one of HTS’s top clerics, Abdullah al-Muhaysini, after the leaking of telephone conversations in which the military leadership criticised him harshly.
Renewed unity talks between mainstream rebel factions will encourage another round of pre-emptive attacks by HTS.
Likely rejection of HTS’s outreach initiative by the mainstream opposition will empower the hawks within the group.
Possible regime operations against HTS would be limited to peripheral strategic positions such as Jisr al-Shughur.
US-backed and pro-Damascus forces will seek to avoid clashes around Deir ez-Zour city in their separate offensives against Islamic State.
A Russian military presence will deter Turkey from attacking the Syrian Kurds in Afrin and elsewhere.
