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Significance

At its interest rate meeting on September 20, the Fed had brushed aside mounting concerns about persistently low inflation, announcing that it will begin to unwind its 4.5-trillion-dollar balance sheet next month. More controversially, it also maintained its forecast for four more rate increases by the end of 2018.

Impacts

Oil prices have recovered this month towards 60 dollars per barrel, a two-year high, partly due to the threat to Iraqi Kurdistan’s exports.

Stocks of negative-yield government debt are rising, now 10.4 trillion dollars, as demand for ‘safe’ assets rises with geopolitical risk.

The dollar index is rising, driven partly by the Fed’s hawkishness and partly by euro weakness, led by the German elections.

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