Although Riyadh’s control of internal security is strong, it is facing a time of change, with an untried interior minister, bureaucratic reorganisation in the counter-terrorism apparatus and the prospect of further far-reaching and potentially destabilising economic and social reforms. Beyond transnational Sunni salafi-jihadist groups such as IS, key internal threats include Shia dissidents, salafi oppositionists and blowback from the Yemen war.
Saudi Arabia will prolong its war in Yemen until a buffer zone can be developed to end missile attacks.
Oil prices may experience brief shocks as critical infrastructure is threatened.
Riyadh will boost security spending, especially on the Yemen border and in Shia areas.
Arms purchases will focus more on missiles, border security and urban security.
