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Significance
Belarus's emergence from recession this year is a consequence of reliance on the Russian economy and on refined oil prices in Europe, just as the contraction of 2015-16 was. The country imports cheap Russian crude, refines it and sells it at market prices to Europe.
Impacts
Healthier trade with Russia may undermine recent steps toward closer political cooperation with Europe.
Ukraine was an important destination of manufactured exports during Russia's recession, but that trend is receding.
If an ongoing diplomatic row extends into a trade war, Ukraine will lose more in economic terms than Belarus.
Keywords:
Belarus,
RUCIS,
Baltic states,
CIS,
Europe,
Russia,
economy,
industry,
balance of payments,
foreign trade,
manufacturing,
oil,
gas
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2017
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