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Subject

Threats to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Significance

China on December 8 warned its nationals in Pakistan that “terrorist attacks” targeting them are imminent. Acts of political violence around the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) -- a key component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative -- are exacerbating concerns about the safety of investments and personnel. Beijing will expect Islamabad to meet the security challenge.

Impacts

The CPEC’s Joint Coordination Committee should resolve most disputes between Beijing and Islamabad over project plans.

Political opposition to the CPEC may grow if Chinese investments are perceived to be trapping Pakistan in debt.

Pakistan’s current account deficit is likely to widen, with the rise in the country's imports strongly linked to the CPEC.

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