Open figure viewer
Subject
The impact of sanctions on North Korea's economy.
Significance
Successive UN Security Council resolutions over the past year impose the toughest sanctions North Korea has ever faced. If implemented thoroughly, the new sanctions will have much greater impact than earlier measures. The result will be to increase political risk in North-east Asia in the medium term (2018-20).
Impacts
North Korea's leadership will not even consider denuclearisation, seeing this as tantamount to collective suicide.
The threat of domestic instability will push the elite to become more repressive at home.
If political collapse or war looked imminent, China would switch back to quietly undermining the sanctions regime.
Keywords:
North Korea,
AP,
China,
United Nations,
economy,
international relations,
foreign policy,
growth,
reform,
sanctions,
nuclear weapons,
security,
agriculture
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2018
You do not currently have access to this content.
