Nigerian opposition prospects.
Former President Olusegun Obasanjo on January 23 issued a scathing rebuke of President Muhammadu Buhari's performance and implored him not to run for re-election in 2019. Although yet to confirm his intentions, Buhari is expected to be the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) standard-bearer once more. Meanwhile, after four years of national opposition, the former ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP, in office 1999-2015) has overcome debilitating internal divisions and could become a serious electoral prospect once more. While this may lead to a competitive election, it could also potentially exacerbate the country’s manifold security challenges.
The PDP could benefit from a proposed alteration to the electoral timetable to hold gubernatorial ahead of presidential elections.
Fuel shortages and food inflation, combined with persistent underemployment and unemployment, will undermine Buhari's economic credentials.
Violent election flashpoints are likely to include the central states, parts of the south-west (including Lagos) and the Niger Delta.
