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Significance
Crises have never been in short supply in Somalia, but the current government seems to be stumbling from one to another, many driven by chronic infighting among different branches of government. The administration appears to be recovering, but it has lost credibility, momentum and, most importantly, much-needed time to implement major strategic priorities.
Impacts
Domestic opponents may seek to leverage the United Arab Emirates (UAE)’s misgivings towards the government to secure support.
While currently distracted by domestic affairs, Ethiopia maintains significant influence and could reassume a larger role.
Insecurity and the fight against al-Shabaab may also derail critical processes.
Keywords:
Somalia,
AF,
Ethiopia,
United Arab Emirates,
United States,
international relations,
politics,
social,
constitution,
election,
foreign policy,
military,
regional,
security,
police
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2018
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