Rebels complain that pro-government forces had earlier allowed IS safe passage to Idlib from Hama. At the same time, in northern Idlib, Turkish armoured convoys have deployed to set up new observation posts, under a September 2017 ‘de-escalation agreement’ signed at Astana with the government’s backers, Russia and Iran. Nevertheless, some of these convoys came under attack from Damascus’s forces, in a complex context where Moscow is also launching devastating air strikes against opposition-held towns in Idlib and Ankara is separately attacking Kurdish forces in nearby Afrin.
Slow progress in Afrin may see Turkey bogged down in an extended campaign.
Rebels in Idlib are preparing for long-term guerrilla warfare in the hilly western areas if they lose the main towns.
If Turkey frustrates Assad’s ambitions in Idlib, he could retaliate by facilitating the reinforcement and resupply of the Kurds in Afrin.
