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Significance
It is aggressively silencing dissent, and on May 4, the government announced a six-month ban on BBC and VOA broadcasts within the country. If passed, the reforms could allow incumbent President Pierre Nkurunziza to serve two more seven-year terms of office, which could extend his rule until 2034.
Impacts
The referendum will offer little respite to Burundi’s beleaguered economy, which grew by 1.3% in 2017.
An uptick in political violence could spur further refugee flows across borders.
Armed opposition groups in neighbouring countries will continue to build their capacity, posing an ongoing security threat within Burundi.
Rwanda will remain the most critical regional state, despite a slight thaw in relations after recent bilateral exchanges.
Keywords:
Burundi,
AF,
East Africa,
Rwanda,
Uganda,
international relations,
politics,
social,
constitution,
government,
human rights,
opposition,
referendum,
reform,
election,
refugees
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2018
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