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Significance
Trump described the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as "defective at its core". Iran's compliance has repeatedly been verified, but the agreement has never operated as intended. Uncertainty over Washington's future commitment reduced economic benefits to Tehran and blocked Iran's reintegration into the global economy.
Impacts
Except for a few high-profile deals, Europe is eclipsed as an Iranian trade partner by China, which could gain from a JCPOA breakdown.
A US or Israeli strike on Iran might target utility infrastructure rather than nuclear facilities, given the environmental risks.
If Iran used the dispute settlement mechanism against the US violation, it could risk automatic 'snapback' of multilateral sanctions.
Keywords:
Iran,
ME/NAF,
United States,
China,
EU,
France,
Germany,
Gulf states,
Israel,
Russia,
United Kingdom,
economy,
international relations,
politics,
employment,
foreign investment,
foreign policy,
growth,
military,
nuclear energy,
nuclear weapons,
prices,
sanctions,
security,
treaty
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2018
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