New military activities in the South China Sea.
Military moves and minor on-water incidents in recent weeks have ended 18 months of relative calm in the South China Sea that followed a 2016 international arbitration tribunal ruling against Chinese claims and the China-friendly Rodrigo Duterte's election as president of the Philippines.
France, the United Kingdom and other countries will increase patrols in the South China Sea, and publicity thereof.
Russia offers Vietnam an offshore development partner that China will not want to confront.
Russian oil giant Rosneft will press on with joint offshore oil drilling with Vietnam.
Duterte’s China-friendly foreign policy will increasingly be tested.
China’s integration of civilian, paramilitary and military maritime forces will progress rapidly.
