It will change if 50%+1 of the electorate participate and 50%+1 of them approve. The government’s greatest hope for winning the referendum may be to provoke the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE) into boycotting it. The referendum question asks voters whether they favour EU and NATO membership in accepting the name agreement with Greece. VMRO-DPMNE’s insistence that the question refer solely to the name was ignored; its legislators did not participate in the parliamentary vote.
The name deal has redrawn Balkan geopolitics, bringing Athens and Skopje closer and marking Greece’s recovery of influence lost after 2008.
The choice of a name that Bulgaria declared unacceptable embarrasses Sofia after its EU presidency prioritised the Western Balkans.
NATO and EU strongly support the name deal, seeing it as Macedonia’s route towards Western institutions and away from Russian influence.
