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Subject

US housing market.

Significance

The Case-Shiller 20-city composite housing price index hit a record high in May 2018, surpassing its previous record in 2006. However, unlike the mid-2000s, evidence suggests that the US housing market is not in a national bubble. Instead, prices are high in many cities due to an undersupply of housing. This has wider effects: by one estimate, without current land restrictions on housing development, the US economy would be 9% larger than it is now.

Impacts

Low-cost cities will increasingly be back-office work destinations.

If rents and housing costs keep rising, consumers may make greater use of credit, raising indebtedness risks.

Greater reliance on older US housing stock will mean greater maintenance costs and safety risks.

The housing debate will largely be a cross-party rather than partisan issue.

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