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Significance

Canada’s opposition federal Conservative Party splintered on August 23, when Bernier left, citing irreconcilable differences with the party as it has developed under leader Andrew Scheer.

Impacts

If a Trudeau administration stays after 2019, US-Canada ties could be rocky again given both leaders’ animosity.

Bernier will push to shift the political debate to include healthcare, immigration and farm supply management.

Pressure will grow to dismantle Canada’s supply management system, but this outcome is unlikely at present.

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