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Subject
Violent and peaceful opposition in Chechnya.
Significance
Multiple attacks on Chechen security forces on August 20 represent a new kind of security risk, different from the activities of conventional armed militants. Claimed by the Islamic State (IS) group, the attacks take place in an broader environment of more vocal criticism of President Ramzan Kadyrov.
Impacts
Popular discontent will convince Kadyrov to narrow appointments to family and clan.
Kadyrov has alienated other North Caucasus leaders and cannot count on their support.
The dynamics of IS and other militant activity are likely to remain compartmentalised in each North Caucasus republic.
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2018
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