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Subject

The United States, the International Criminal Court and international legal investigations.

Significance

The International Criminal Court (ICC) is being criticised for its paltry conviction record, alleged targeting of particular states and leaders and possibly existential crisis of being unable to prosecute many international criminals. On September 10, US National Security Advisor John Bolton questioned the ICC's legitimacy and applicability, threatening sanctions against its leadership if it pursued investigations against US military personnel for controversial incidents in Afghanistan or against US allies.

Impacts

African states may push the ICC to refocus away from eastern and southern Africa.

Some leaders could use US criticisms of the ICC as cover to violate international human rights.

Washington may increasingly seek bilateral protections against ICC involvement in US global activities.

The ICC may recalibrate its approach to disputes, seeking other support for its activities.

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