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Significance
The insurance costs for Lebanon’s sovereign bonds rose rapidly in September, reflecting both general unease among investors in emerging markets and specific concerns about Lebanon. In addition to the lack of a government, there are questions over technical aspects of a central bank debt swap programme launched in 2016.
Impacts
Without a government, Lebanon could not take advantage of 11 billion dollars of aid pledged by donors at a conference in Paris in April.
Even if the central bank addresses the current market turbulence, Lebanon’s debt-based financial model will ultimately prove unsustainable.
The longevity of the dollar peg (since 1997) means any adjustment would be traumatic, especially given Lebanon’s high import-dependence.
Keywords:
Lebanon,
ME/NAF,
economy,
politics,
balance of payments,
banking,
debt,
election,
exchange rate,
finance,
fiscal,
government,
opposition,
Banks
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2018
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