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Significance
Some 80% of the city, which was the de facto capital of Islamic State (IS) until its capture by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), was ruined in fighting and reconstruction efforts have been limited. With 90% of the governorate's population of tribal origin, the Kurdish-dominated SDF relies on clientelist networks with tribal leaders, all Sunni Arab, to maintain order and garner support.
Impacts
Local and regional actors will compete for tribal leaders’ loyalty, creating divisions within tribes and clans.
The SDF will retain the support of Raqqa-based tribal leaders.
Tribal leaders who have fled elsewhere will promote dissent in SDF areas of control.
Some youths who sympathise with IS’s cause will cause instability in Raqqa.
Keywords:
Syria,
ME/NAF,
Turkey,
United States,
international relations,
politics,
social,
civil war,
government,
military,
opposition,
security,
aid,
foreign policy,
war
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2018
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