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Subject

Nicaraguan migrants.

Significance

Violence levels in Nicaragua appear to have plateaued in recent weeks as President Daniel Ortega’s security forces have subdued protesters and cemented their control. The impact of this year’s civil unrest is nevertheless being felt throughout Central America. This is particularly true of Costa Rica, which has become a magnet for migrants fleeing the unrest in their own country.

Impacts

Nicaragua may be facing an intractable, low-intensity conflict that could see migration flare and subside unpredictably for years to come.

Concerns about the fiscal impact of rising migration could add impetus to ongoing calls for fiscal reform.

Sustained, high migration levels could impact Panama, which is already struggling with a Venezuelan migrant surge.

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