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Significance
The threat of the sanctions had already caused a decline in oil exports, damaging the economy, although the announcement of waivers may prevent a further decline in the near term.
Impacts
The United States will adduce terrorism, rather than nuclear, threats to encourage European states to come onside.
Iran's military may grow more assertive in the region if Europe fails to offer meaningful assistance.
Europe and Iran’s key export markets will find ways around the sanctions unless Washington can push them hard.
Keywords:
ME/NAF,
NA,
China,
EU,
Russia,
Iran,
United States,
economy,
international relations,
politics,
defence,
foreign policy,
foreign trade,
military,
oil,
sanctions,
security,
terrorism,
banking,
nuclear energy,
nuclear weapons,
Fossil fuels
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2018
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