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Significance

This follows New Caledonia’s November 4 referendum on independence from France, which fulfilled part of the Accord, and in which 56.4% voted against and 43.6% in favour on an 80.6% turnout. The Paris talks next month, with political leaders from all sides, will aim to forge an agreement on preventing further ethnic polarisation in the next few years.

Impacts

Canberra and Wellington will welcome France’s continued engagement in balancing China’s regional influence.

More sporadic protests by Kanaks at nickel mines are likely as an outlet for expressing ethnic grievances.

Few Kanak leaders will actively support continuing to be part of France, despite the economic incentives.

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