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Subject

Bolivian gas exports.

Significance

With negotiations under way with Argentina over gas supplies and pricing, Bolivia is seeking to sustain gas exports over the medium term both to this country and to Brazil. These are Bolivia’s only foreign markets for natural gas and between them are its main source of export earnings and fiscal revenue. The gas industry is also a key sector for foreign investment.

Impacts

Sales of gas to Chile are likely to be blocked because of Bolivia’s dispute over its outlet to the Pacific.

Bolivia’s relations with Brazil are likely to become more problematic because of the election of Jair Bolsonaro as Brazilian president.

Morales may win re-election next year, but reduced export revenue would eventually weigh on public spending and with that, his popularity.

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