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Significance
With an ageing head of state, Oman must prepare for a post-Sultan Qaboos era, with some of its key policies at odds with those of other Gulf governments.
Impacts
A move by Qaboos's successor to align with Saudi and UAE policy on Iran may hamper Yemen mediation efforts.
The emergence of a new Omani leadership more sympathetic to Saudi policy would boost regional cohesion.
An end to the blockade of Qatar would cut off a welcome source of revenue for Oman from transshipment fees.
Deepening Saudi control of Yemen's al-Mahra province could spark another conflict if Oman chooses to challenge it.
Keywords:
Oman,
ME/NAF,
Qatar,
Saudi Arabia,
United Arab Emirates,
Iran,
United States,
Yemen,
international relations,
politics,
foreign policy,
regional,
sanctions,
economy,
religion,
treaty,
war,
foreign trade,
military,
security
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2018
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