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Subject

Long-term energy markets outlook.

Significance

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has upgraded its forecast for total primary energy demand (TPED) to 2040 for the first time since it began projecting this far out in 2014.

Impacts

The IEA’s belief that the world is on an environmentally unsustainable path will bolster decarbonisation efforts nationally and globally.

The IEA does not see oil demand peaking by 2040; this and gas’s growing share of global demand will help sustain oil and gas investment.

China and India switching from coal to gas will reduce coal’s share of energy demand even though India’s official targets are optimistic.

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