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Subject

EU-Iran humanitarian trade.

Significance

Following the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the EU is close to launching a mechanism to facilitate trade with Iran in spite of stringent US sanctions. This special purpose vehicle (SPV) is likely to be released in the coming weeks. Its scope will be less ambitious than originally conceived and will, in its initial version, be restricted to trade in humanitarian and sanctions-exempt goods.

Impacts

The SPV may strengthen political support in Iran for continued participation in the JCPOA.

Unity within the EU will be tested as some member states are more hesitant about disrupting the transatlantic partnership.

As the humanitarian impact of US sanctions increases, pushback from the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives is more likely.

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