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Subject

Duque troubles.

Significance

Colombian Foreign Minister Carlos Holmes Trujillo on December 30 announced the arrests of three Venezuelan nationals suspected of plotting to assassinate President Ivan Duque. The announcement comes as Duque enters 2019, his first full year in office, against a backdrop of rising tensions with the Venezuelan government, plummeting domestic approval ratings and protests by citizens angry with his government’s stance on numerous issues including education, taxation, corruption and security.

Impacts

The recent dip in global oil prices could, if it continues, threaten oil investment and revenue.

The encroachment of Colombian armed groups into Venezuelan territory will increase the risk of diplomatic incidents.

October 2019 local elections could see Duque's party lose many of the urban centres it currently controls to the opposition.

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